Friday, April 13, 2007

Peak Oil

"It is my opinion that the peak will occur in late 2005 or in the first few months of 2006," says Princeton geologist Kenneth S. Deffeyes in a new book, Beyond Oil. A more conservative estimate by Mike Rodgers of PFC Energy locates the peak somewhere in the vicinity of 2010-2015. If either of these predictions proves accurate, global oil supply can never climb high enough to satisfy the elevated consumption levels projected by the DoE for 2025 and beyond. (

I calculated how old I'd be in 2025 and I would be 62 years old. Kind of worrying in view of the fact that this is when my legs would have become weaker and perhaps I would need a car. Right now, I don't even have a driver's license but my longterm plan had been to get one and then buy a car...for my old age.

I guess all we can do to prepare for this is to live pretty much the way we've been living because you can't stop driving cars depending on where you live. But you can make sure you are living in a place and have a lifestyle where it's not integral to take a car everywhere.

My flat here is walking distance from a train station, the supermarket and the beach. I walk mostly because I am not an exercise freak and walking is virtually the only form of exercise I ever get. But I'd been contemplating other means of transportation lately because it has been raining quite a bit this spring and I may soon be living with someone who may have to commute to place that might be a tad difficult to walk to in the rain. Rain also means you won't be going there in a bicycle or motorcycle even. It has got to be a car.

I mean if you're retired by the time petroleum costs escalate it won't be so terrible, but if you're in the peak of your career I don't know how you're going to be able to cope with it. You've got to get to work and the job has got to be done and it will probably take petroleum to get to work.

Reminds me of something my father who was a scientist said when he was still alive:

"With the way things are going now, who knows what will happen in the future? I think things will be fine in your lifetime, but I really can't say if it will still be fine in the lifetime of your children."

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